National, State, and Local Politics Affecting Virginia Beach

2008 Election Dissection

By Joel McDonald • Nov 12th, 2008 • Category: Features

Last evening, I had the wonderful opportunity to attend a dinner and panel discussion hosted by the Nimmo Republican Women’s Club out at the Virginia Beach National Golf Club. The food was very good, and the company and discussion was even better.

The panelists included Brian Kirwin, Vivian Paige, and J.R. Hoeft. Big topics of the evening included voter turnout and the African American vote, Sarah Palin, how fair the mainstream media was, and the future of the Republican party. Really, none of these topics are new to anyone who has been following the election and the aftermath, being being up close and personal to the discussion shed some light on the emotions and the thinking at play right now as everyone is settling in and planning for new political realities.

Brian Kirwin began the discussion by saying what he’s said before about election cycles and how there is hope for conservatives heading into the midterm election. He also expressed his disappointment in how horribly Sarah Palin was attacked, calling the non-stop assault “sickening”. After this, he also said something that I’ve been seeing on various conservative blogs: Sarah Palin “will be back”. This is something I highly doubt. I think Sarah Palin has shown her abilities, and was found wanting. Perhaps with more national experience as a Senator, which may be a possibility thanks to Ted Stevens, she’ll be able to handle those pesky “gotcha” questions; but I still think it’s doubtful that many will be willing to put their trust in her as a possible presidential nominee.

There has been much ado made about African American turnout and how they voted, the specific question being if they voted for Barack Obama due of the color of his skin. It was called “the 500 pound gorilla” in the room. Did Obama win because of the African American vote? The response from the panel was a unanimous in the negative. While voter turnout was up, but not record breaking, turnout for all age groups and ethnicities were up as well. With African American voters traditionally voting Democratic over 90% of the time, any gains due to Barack Obama’s skin color were not substantial. If he were a white Democrat, he would likely have done just as well. Expanding the conversation, J.R. Hoeft expressed some concern that Republican campaigns aren’t going into areas that consistently vote by large margins for Democratic candidates, and that those areas are being ignored.

Like so many Republicans around the nation, everyone last evening was wondering how the 2008 election would change the party going into future elections to attempt to gain back some of the ground they lost. I think Vivian Paige hit the nail on the head by saying, “If the Republican Party decides to deal with God, gays and guns, they are going to remain the minority party.” I really couldn’t agree with her more on this. Yes, utilizing these issues has been effective in stirring up the emotions of the base, and some toward the center, but I think we’re seeing less and less response to these issues; especially if more tangible issues like the economy and a mismanaged war are staring voters in the face. Interestingly, there wasn’t much reaction to the notion that Republicans not emphasise these issues, but get back to the basics of conservative governance and become a far more inclusive party.

For more of what was discussed, I recommend heading over to Bearing Drift for podcasts, organized by topic, covering last evenings event. Special thanks to J.R. Hoeft for recording and posting the podcasts, and thanks to the Nimmo Republican Women’s Club for hosting an enjoyable event.

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Joel McDonald has been following Virginia politics since February 2008, starting with the Democratic Presidential Primary. Since then, he has been the primary new media contact for progressive district and statewide campaigns.
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One Response »

  1. How can anyone take Brian Kirwin serious? His unbelievable bungling of the Marty Williams campaign will go down in history as the worst run campaign EVER in Virginia politics. Kirwin had $500-thousand in cash, in hand, an incumbant with 12-years seniority, the Newport News Republican Party machine and the press on his side. The primary opponent was by all accounts a “nutbag”, yet, he still LOST! Why is this guy even used in forums for anything? His website, “Boring-Dull” is laughable and down to a dozen hits a day. While I applaud the Republicans for using this guy, we as Democrats really should ignore him as we would a bothersome gnat at a summer picnic. Just swat him away.

    It just makes me wonder “WHY” anyone would consider using him in a serious forum on politics!

    Oh, and the biggest slams at Palin did not come from the “press’ it came from the McCain campaign! But as usual Kirwin will hyperbolize this until he actually believes the lies he spews!

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