Let me start this by saying that I don’t harbor any animosity toward Creigh Deeds or wish him failure. I’ve heard him described as being a “salt of the earth” kind of guy. I believe he serves the people of Virginia the best way he can, but politics being as it is; he has stumbled here and there. I think we need leaders like Deeds, and I hope he’ll continue his service in the commonwealth.

We now have three polls spanning 12 weeks in the current Democratic primary. By now, candidates and activists should be thinking about the best way to maneuver for a victory in November.

These things need to be considered:

1. From the first poll to the last, only Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran have made significant progress with Moran leading by 7%.

2. Terry McAuliffe’s unfavorables are 14% higher than Brian Moran’s, and is actually higher than both Moran and Deeds combined. McAuliffe’s unfavorables are high, and increase at a greater rate than both Moran and Deeds as the candidates gain greater exposure.

3. While Deeds has been able to increase his favorables at a greater rate than both Moran and McAuliffe, this is unlikely to generate a win for Deeds. There just isn’t enough time.

4. According to the Public Policy Polling blog, 41% of respondents who have an unfavorable view of McAuliffe support Moran, while 31% support Deeds.

In light of the polling data, knowing that it’s likely that McAuliffe’s unfavorables could be approaching 40% at the time of the primary election on June 9th and “and still win the Democratic nomination with 35-40% of the vote if the anti vote is split too evenly” (PPP), I think it’s time for Deeds, who trails both Moran and McAuliffe, to consider pulling out from this race to unite the party around Brian Moran as the Democratic nominee.

The nomination of Brian Moran, who’s favorables should be 35% at the time of the primary election should increase the likelihood of a Democratic win in November as we will have nominated a more popular candidate and be able to better sustain momentum through the primary and into the general election.

The polling projects a win by Moran over McAuliffe with extremely slim margins. Deeds can decide the outcome of this primary, right now. He can win this election for Moran, strengthen the Democratic Party of Virginia, and better enable us to beat Bob McDonnell in November.

X-Posted to Raising Moran, New Dominion Project, and Blue Commonwealth

Related posts:

1. Deeds gaining ground, Moran and McAuliffe stalled
2. Latest PPP: Deeds leads, McAuliffe and Moran stagnant
3. It’s Creigh Deeds
4. Creigh Deeds, his campaign, and the Washington Post
5. Latest primary polling showing Moran’s precarious position