It’s hard not to like the guy. Creigh Deeds, the Democratic primary candidate for Governor of Virginia from conservative far western Virginia, carries himself with a level of striking earnestness that is only a few ticks higher than his disarming awkwardness and southern-good-ol-boy-ality.

Of course, that’s not enough to qualify someone for the office of governor, but combined with Deed’s 18 years of service in the General Assembly, and legislative accomplishments like that of writing Megan’s Law, you have a candidate who would be worthy of any Virginian’s vote.

Then there’s his campaign, which can only be described as being akin to himself, somewhat awkward, and often understated. Instead of resigning from the Virginia Senate, Deed’s completed this year’s session, losing valuable campaigning time. After the session, things seemed to be slow going for the campaign, with many wondering if he had a strategy at all. Even I made the mistake of counting him out, fearing that Terry McAuliffe would have advantage with Deed’s pulling votes from Brian Moran as a quasi third party candidate.

Over the last few weeks, Virginians have seen a more aggressive campaign from Deeds. During debates, he’s sought to set himself apart from his opponents, even questioning their record, or non-record in one case, while looking to clarify his own. His television ads are incredibly well done, provoking, and entirely focused on who Creigh Deeds, his life, and the work he’s done for Virginia. They are garaunteed to make some inroads with the general electorate; however, I’m not sure how effective they’ll be on swinging primary voters this late in the campaign. My personal favorite is below.

I spoke with Deeds for a few minutes at a reception held for him here in Virginia Beach this past January. When I asked him what he thought would seperate him from Brian Moran, he said that his transportation plan was solid, and that Moran hadn’t pushed for a working plan. At the time, I thought transporation wasn’t enough of an issue to swing voters his direction. However, in today’s endorsement of Creigh Deeds, the Washington Post cited his work and plan to improve Virginia’s transporation issues, which includes unpopular measures such as a tax increase to pay for needed improvements, as being reasons why Deeds should be a serious consideration.

While I commend Creigh Deeds on running an admirable campaign, and for gaining the endorsement of the Washington Post, I do see a weakness in the argument provided by both on the general electability of Deeds. While Deeds did indeed run against Bob McDonnell for Attorney General four years ago, losing by the narrowst of margins; I don’t think this equates to his being competitive against McDonnell in the general election for Governor. This is a whole other ballgame, one where people actually do pay attention. Current polling shows McDonnell leading all three Democratic candidates, with the difference in the lead inside the margin of error. We just don’t know, by the numbers, how well Deeds, Moran, or McAuliffe will stand up against McDonnell.

As I’ve written before, Creigh Deeds continues to make the most significant gains in favorables amoung likely primary voters as he gains more name recognition. The television ads are certainly going to help. However, these gains don’t seem to be translating to likely votes, as Deeds continues to trail behind Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe. In the end, this is likely going to be a matter of Deeds’ late start due to completing this year’s senate session. Had he been fully engaged for the entirity of his campaign, he might have picked up significantly more early supporters.

If Creigh Deeds does infact win the nomination, many progressive Democrats are going to have to remind themselves that a somewhat more conservative Democrat like Deeds is far better than the ultra-conservative Republican Bob McDonnell. While we may not, in Deeds, have a governor who is willing to take the lead on progressive issues, the election of Bob McDonnell as our next Governor could set Virginia back a decade, undoing the work of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. It’s going to take the work of every Democratic activist to prevent this from happening, regardless of who wins the nomination next month.

Related posts:

1. Washington Post: Endorsement of Creigh Deeds comes down to transportation, again
2. Deeds gaining ground, Moran and McAuliffe stalled
3. It’s Creigh Deeds
4. Latest PPP: Deeds leads, McAuliffe and Moran stagnant
5. Deeds can win by dropping out