Tomorrow, June 9th, is a the big day for Democrats across Virginia as they’ll head to the polls to elects their nominees Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and various House races.

For Governor

The race for the top spot on the ticket has been twisted, brutal, and often difficult to watch. In mid-2008, the race for the nomination included two men who had both dedicated many years of service to Virginia. Creigh Deeds, the State Senator from Bath, and Brian Moran, the State Delegate from Alexandria and Chair of the House Democratic Caucus. Many assumed that Moran would likely be the nominee for Governor due to his large base of support in Northern Virginia, and a slight edge with progressives throughout the commonwealth.

Later-2008 brought something new to the race for the nomination, as Terry McAuliffe, former chair of Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the presidency, announced that he was looking into possibly running for Governor of Virginia. Democrats knew immediately that McAuliffe’s candidacy would change the race significantly, bringing millions of dollars and national attention. More than anyone, the person most affected by McAuliffe entering the race would have been Brian Moran, as McAuliffe would cut into Moran’s progressive supporters. Brian Moran resigned from the House of Delegates in December 2008 to run for Governor full-time. Some say that he did so in order to combat a possible McAuliffe candidacy.

When McAuliffe announced that he would indeed run in Virginia, the dynamic of the race for the nomination changed significantly, and it wouldn’t be long until the race was framed as being between Moran and McAuliffe, with Deeds outside of the spotlight, especially while the General Assembly was in session. Unlike Brian Moran, Creigh Deeds did not resign from his seat in the Senate in order to campaign.

When it was clear that McAuliffe was raising millions, with over 75% of those funds coming from out of state, and that he was blitzing Virginia with television and radio ads, the Moran campaign looked to slow McAuliffe’s advance by focusing their resources on informing voters of McAuliffe’s past business and political dealings, including showing how his claims of business success and job creation were seriously exaggerated. While much of this needed to be said, I’m not sure if the campaign should have spent so much time and money in getting it out there. Ever since targeting McAuliffe like this, Brian Moran has been labeled the negative candidate by many. Many Democratic activists who started out supporting Moran switched to either Deeds of McAuliffe because of this.

In March, after following all three candidates for a while, I announced my support of Brian Moran. I still think he’s the best choice for progress in Virginia; however, the management of his campaign has disturbed me. I think not electing Moran as our nominee, and the next Governor of Virginia, will stagnate the commonwealth, or worse, hand the election to the Republicans who will set us back a decade.

In the last month, we’ve seen another dramatic shift in the race as Creigh Deeds has used his resources to launch excellent ads, gained big endorsements like that of the Washington Post, and has surged in the polls. He’s gone from being 16 points behind to being 14 points ahead in Public Policy Polling results. All indicators show that he has the most traction than both Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe combined. Of course, voter turnout is the main barrier for his winning the nomination, but I don’t think anyone can really argue that his campaign hasn’t been brilliant and perhaps the best run in the race for the nomination.

Interestingly enough, we’ve also seen that McAuliffe’s millions and media blitz seems to have given him only a slight advantage over Brian Moran. According to the PPP, they are statistically tied. I’m not able to say whether the Moran campaign has succeeded in their mission to slow down McAuliffe, or whether the media and voters have figured out that he’s as shallow as his resume of service in Virginia on their own; but McAuliffe seems to be stalled.

Lt. Governor

According to PPP, 42% remain undecided in the race for Lt. Governor. Jody Wagner has a significant lead over progressive Mike Signer. I think Democrats are well on their way to losing this race to Bill Bolling in November if we nominate Wagner. There is nothing about Wagner that will catch people in the general election, and this will give Bolling a significant advantage as the incumbent. Wagner has enjoyed positive name recognition among Democrats, and this has lead to candidate like Signer having to fight hard for every supporter they have.  As Lt. Governor, Mike Signer will be a progressive voice who will push for policies that will move Virginia forward. I just don’t see Wagner doing much at all.

Attoney General

Steve Shannon seems to have the nomination locked up. He’ll be running against Ken Cuccinelli, who apparently went to law school on Sesame Street.

47th House

I don’t live anywhere near this district, and it’s the only one I’m going to comment on. Miles Grant has my support in this race. He’s obviously the most progressive and best grassroots candidate in that race, and we need leaders like him in the House of Delegates who will push to make Virginia a leader in green energy and innovation.

Related posts:

1. Moran and Wagner lead in latest polling
2. Latest primary polling showing Moran’s precarious position
3. Latest PPP: Deeds leads, McAuliffe and Moran stagnant
4. Statewide candidates begin to submit signatures [Updated 3-27-09 12:18 AM]
5. Deeds gaining ground, Moran and McAuliffe stalled